Controlled Age- Dependent Population Dynamics Based on Parity Progression

The “age-dependent parity progression model” is intended to describe the birth process of females by introducing the age distribution density of women who have a given birth order (number of births) and the ageparity-specific fertility. The idea of population dynamics based on parity progression can be traced back to Henry [I], and later Whelpton [2] and Feeney [3]. The advantage of this model as compared to the macroscopic McKendrick population model (see, for example, Song and Yu [4]) is the introduction of the birth control strategy of a given parity instead of that for age-speciiic fertility and providing of a framework for integrating microlevel birth analysis into macro-level studies of fertility and population growth trends. Furthermore, similar ideas such as the establishing of the parity female ratio model can be used conveniently in population forecasting, see Han [S] for details.